After watching someone on YouTube play this I realised that I was conflating 95 with 100. I never stopped to ask “what’s the plan if this shot misses?”. Once you start asking that you take less risks and lose fewer soldiers
For any interested in a slightly different take on XCOM gameplay, Phoenix Point is essentially a clone (from an original dev IIRC) and one of the big changes is how it does aiming / overwatch.
While the game isn’t without flaws, the shooting mechanics are much more engaging (you will get 100% on close shots) and the percentages make sense.
Look at it like this: if you have a 10-sided die where 9 of the sides were marked with a 1 (meaning “hit”) and one side marked with a 0 (miss), there’s always the chance you could land on that 0 even though you’re much more likely to land on a 1.
Funny enough, those aren’t even the real percentages. The developers of XCOM found in play testing that people were hilariously bad at telling when probability was being fair or not. Because of our innate tendencies to give greater weight and memory to negative consequences people always remember missing those 95% shots but tend not to remember hitting those 40% shots.
They had to change the entire algorithm. The rolls are actually more in your favor than the numbers suggest.
The last time I played X-Com 2, there was one of the massive guys that was down to one or two HP. 3 of the 4 people on the team are absolutely elite, tons of HP, best weapons, best armor, etc. One rookie with decent gear.
Assault trooper takes out one and ends turn. Shotgun guy pokes out around a corner and goes face to face with the big guy. 95% chance.Misses. Retreats back. Sniper takes a 95% shot, misses. Rookie takes a 95% shot. Misses.
Okay, so I’ll be in a little rough shape after this but I think everything should be fine. Shotgun guy has the reaction so when the big guy moves in to attack, he’ll get one to the face and I can clean up the rest.
Big guy moves. Shotgun misses. Big guy attacks Shotgun and kills them. Big guy attacks rookie, kills them. Big guy attacks assault guy, kills them.
Sniper has 95% chance of hitting the big guy. Misses.
Alt+F4.
I’d like to say I never tried playing again but I did try again sometime in 2020 but ran into the same absolute BS with RNG and quit again.
The last time I ragequite X-Com was when my sniper missed a shot that was listed ad 100% to hit and then was immediately one-shot in return by a Sectoid with the basic alien pistol.
Playing Marvel Midnight Suns (also developed by Firaxis) and I gotta say I love their experiment in getting rid of percentages. It’s now uncertain input but certain outputs so you can actually strategize with more confidence, rather than the other way around.
It has nothing to do with the odds. What drives people nuts is watching your soldier somehow miss when the gun is literally clipped inside an alien’s face
I watched one of my favorite YouTubers get through a practically flawless run of XCOM2 without losing a single team member. I bought the game for myself, spent hours making custom characters like he did.
In only like the second mission, I plopped my Heavy literally right next to the last Sectoid on the map, and did the double-fire thing. Both of them missed…
The Sectoid turns and instantly deletes my Heavy. Turned off the Xbox and never touched XCOM again.
Anyone that’s annoyed by this should try Phoenix Point. It scratches that X-Com itch but it has a completely different targeting system that works so much better in my opinion.
Also X-com: There was a park bench in the way you couldn’t see.
With a shotgun where the barrel is literally inside their face.
Battle Brothers would like a word.
You have to use VATS
The Very Accurate Targeting System
(This is a reference)
After watching someone on YouTube play this I realised that I was conflating 95 with 100. I never stopped to ask “what’s the plan if this shot misses?”. Once you start asking that you take less risks and lose fewer soldiers
For any interested in a slightly different take on XCOM gameplay, Phoenix Point is essentially a clone (from an original dev IIRC) and one of the big changes is how it does aiming / overwatch.
While the game isn’t without flaws, the shooting mechanics are much more engaging (you will get 100% on close shots) and the percentages make sense.
Tabletop 40K would like a word. . .
Probability ≠ Accuracy
Look at it like this: if you have a 10-sided die where 9 of the sides were marked with a 1 (meaning “hit”) and one side marked with a 0 (miss), there’s always the chance you could land on that 0 even though you’re much more likely to land on a 1.
Back on the 90’s X-COM on PC, I used to save just before I fired, and loaded the saved game as soon as I missed an easy shot.
That is exactly what xcom be like
We’ve all taken that 15% shot with a sniper rifle from squadsight and gotten the luckiest crit on planet earth.
And then the 95% from point blank where your support just randomly aims into the sky.
Aliens make things weird.
Funny enough, those aren’t even the real percentages. The developers of XCOM found in play testing that people were hilariously bad at telling when probability was being fair or not. Because of our innate tendencies to give greater weight and memory to negative consequences people always remember missing those 95% shots but tend not to remember hitting those 40% shots.
They had to change the entire algorithm. The rolls are actually more in your favor than the numbers suggest.
Fire Emblem players have known this pain for decades
Even if XCOM didn’t fudge it’s percentages, ttrpg players know a 5% chance is the same as rolling a Nat 1 on a d20.
The last time I played X-Com 2, there was one of the massive guys that was down to one or two HP. 3 of the 4 people on the team are absolutely elite, tons of HP, best weapons, best armor, etc. One rookie with decent gear.
Assault trooper takes out one and ends turn. Shotgun guy pokes out around a corner and goes face to face with the big guy. 95% chance.Misses. Retreats back. Sniper takes a 95% shot, misses. Rookie takes a 95% shot. Misses.
Okay, so I’ll be in a little rough shape after this but I think everything should be fine. Shotgun guy has the reaction so when the big guy moves in to attack, he’ll get one to the face and I can clean up the rest.
Big guy moves. Shotgun misses. Big guy attacks Shotgun and kills them. Big guy attacks rookie, kills them. Big guy attacks assault guy, kills them.
Sniper has 95% chance of hitting the big guy. Misses.
Alt+F4.
I’d like to say I never tried playing again but I did try again sometime in 2020 but ran into the same absolute BS with RNG and quit again.
The last time I ragequite X-Com was when my sniper missed a shot that was listed ad 100% to hit and then was immediately one-shot in return by a Sectoid with the basic alien pistol.
Where is the picture for getting flanked and crit’ed to death right afterward?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KUSXZzHT2A&t=26m
To this day, the few minutes from that time stamp still have me in stitches.
Man. I’d love for X-Com 3 to be a thing.
I hate it when the AI goes to a 20% spot then crits your best operator
If this meme was a kid that bitch would about be ready for Middle School.
The older Fire Emblem games seem to curse me with this. Even in Shadows of Valentia, I’d frequently get 4-5 misses in a row with 80% hit rate…
Playing Marvel Midnight Suns (also developed by Firaxis) and I gotta say I love their experiment in getting rid of percentages. It’s now uncertain input but certain outputs so you can actually strategize with more confidence, rather than the other way around.
My time has come to share this again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b_SZzZ0Gf0
My favorite part was when monsters randomly dropped in behind your well organized formation and then got to move first, totally destroying your team.
Fuck Xcom.
It has nothing to do with the odds. What drives people nuts is watching your soldier somehow miss when the gun is literally clipped inside an alien’s face
I watched one of my favorite YouTubers get through a practically flawless run of XCOM2 without losing a single team member. I bought the game for myself, spent hours making custom characters like he did.
In only like the second mission, I plopped my Heavy literally right next to the last Sectoid on the map, and did the double-fire thing. Both of them missed…
The Sectoid turns and instantly deletes my Heavy. Turned off the Xbox and never touched XCOM again.
Anyone that’s annoyed by this should try Phoenix Point. It scratches that X-Com itch but it has a completely different targeting system that works so much better in my opinion.